A recent ICM opinin poll for the BBC has shown some increased support for devolution, but still nothing like enough. The poll shows that 49% of people asked want a full law making parliament and 42% against, compared to the 47% for and 44% against a year ago. This shows that the support is going in the right direction, however there is still 9% of people that are undecided, which would be enough, if a significant number of them voted against, to defeat a referendum.
If this trend continues, then there should, hopefully, be a large enough lead to warrent a referendum, however what has to be taken into account is the turn out for any referendum on full-law making powers, and which group would be more likely to go to the polls. If the lead is too narrow, and the turn out is low, it could result in a defeated referendum and set back devolution for a long time. The turnout to the refernedum might be what will win it at the end, and that will be something, I feel, that will be important for the convetion to look at, aswell as the support for or against devolution.
If we will have a refenerdum before 2011, should depend on when it can be best won, and when turnout will be at it's highest amongst yes supporters, blind faith that it can be won no matter when it is held will not help the devolutionist cause, nor will allowing the debate to be hi-jacked by talks of independence and nationalists, it must be kept on the reasons why Wales needs a full-law making parliament, and how that will make the Welsh Assembly a more effective insitution for Wales.
However the best way to put forward a case for devolution is to carry on delivering on public services to the Welsh people and show that Wales is working under the Welsh Assembly and that the Welsh Assembly is able to do it's job and do it well.
UPDATE: Watching Dragon's Eye it seems that a few people are somewhat confused between Full-Law Making Powers and Independnece, any Yes Campaign must make sure that it is clear that full law making powers does not mean independence and will not equal independence.